When the Baltimore Ravens play the Kansas City Chiefs, there are usually two teams competing for the top position on the AFC totem pole. It’s two teams that are 1-2 and desperate to get their seasons back on track. Both teams are flawed, despite the otherworldly quarterbacks. They are both looking for answers following a rough start to the season.
The Ravens’ first victory since 2012 is celebrated at Arrowhead Stadium.
Last week I said that the Ravens had to stop the run in order to make Detroit a one-dimensional team. Detroit instead ran the ball into the Ravens’ throats. Many people have noticed the Ravens’ insistence on playing two-deep looks of safety, which keeps a lid over deep passes while opening up the defense to the run. This is not the time to make a change.
Patrick Mahomes, and the Chiefs, have relied heavily on the deep ball. Mahomes’ 15 passes of at least 20 yards downfield have an average target depth of 8.8, which is his highest level since 2020. The Chiefs’ run game isn’t good either, as Pacheco, Hunt, and others are averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry. Mahomes, their top rusher, has accumulated just 125 yard through three games.
Baltimore should rely on Lamar Jackson and the offense he runs to beat Mahomes and Co., even if Kansas City has some early success. The Ravens must dare the Chiefs not to throw the ball deep to Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton, and to let them score quickly on those throws.
Mahomes’ ability to play outside of the structure is just as important for the Chiefs offense. He is currently the team’s leading rusher and ranks second in QBs this season. Mahomes is a big part of their offense. He holds the ball, throws a deep pass or scrambles. Keep him in the pocket to prevent an offensive rhythm from developing this season.
In Week 1, the Ravens attempted to rush Allen with four men, but failed. They should either blitz Mahomes, and rely on their CBs to cover well, or force Mahomes to step into the pocket by having a spy ready for him. Last week, the Lions used a similar approach to defeat Lamar Jackson.
Last week, I said that the Ravens shouldn’t try to restart their run game after a bad week 2 but instead should focus on attacking the Lions’ bad cornerback performance. Derrick Henry didn’t have much success after the first drive. But this week could be the right time to restart the Ravens’ run game for a variety of reasons.
The Philadelphia Eagles were able to run the ball effectively against the Chiefs, and the Ravens will be able find similar success this week with Henry. Baltimore should benefit from the return of Isaiah Likely in the 12 personnel run as well as the pass. Keaton Mitchell should also be activated this week, according to me.
Mitchell can use his speed to break off some long runs even when the line breaks. This is true even with a limited number of snaps. Mitchell’s 2023 rookie year is a good example. He racked up 489 yardage on only 56 touches, and 135 snaps over eight games. This is 8.7 yards on seven touches a game, and 25% snap share. Mitchell would have had plenty of chances to play every week, even if Henry wasn’t in the backfield.
This is not much for a running back who would be only the third option on the backfield. Henry and Jackson have a lot on their plates. The offensive line struggles and neither Justice Hill or Rasheed Ali has had any impact on the offense. The offense appears to be in need of a change-of pace back who can relieve some of the pressure on Henry and Jackson during the run game. It will be important to rely on the run against a Spagnuolo defence that can often give Jackson fits. If Henry is shut down for the third time in a week, then they will need another option other than Jackson’s legs.
Lamar Jackson has been sacked 7 times in the Lions game, which is the same as the highest number he has ever had. Jackson held onto the ball for too long, which was due to a combination poor blocking, good cover and no one to throw to. In this game, Chris Jones, George Karlaftis and Omarr Norris-Lott are all after Jackson. Jackson’s ability to be more decisive and get open will help. But the offensive line must also play better.
The offensive line is one of the team’s weakest points. Poor guard play leaks over to the linemen around them, forcing the tackles and centers to take up the slack. The line’s ability keep Jackson healthy and clean will be a major factor in how far the team can go during the regular season and the playoffs. Poor offensive line play has destroyed multiple seasons for Joe Burrow and his team in the division.
Joe Noteboom, the Ravens other offensive line starters and Ronnie Stanley could all miss this game. They will have to be ready for four quarters.