The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers are set to renew their rivalry in the playoffs, and while these matchups always deliver high-stakes drama, this one carries even more intrigue. With a trip to the AFC Championship on the line, several key factors will determine whether Baltimore can hold serve at home or if Pittsburgh will spoil the party at M&T Bank Stadium.
Here’s a deep dive into the most pressing storylines ahead of this monumental clash.
For the first time in his two-year career, Zay Flowers will miss a game due to injury. The Pro Bowl wide receiver has been a revelation for Baltimore, seamlessly becoming Lamar Jackson’s go-to target in key situations. Across two playoff games last season, Flowers recorded 13 receptions, proving his ability to deliver on the biggest stage.
Without Flowers, the Ravens must adjust. Baltimore’s offense thrives on versatility, with Mark Andrews (if available), Isaiah Likely, Rashod Bateman, and Odell Beckham Jr. all capable of stepping up. But the Steelers’ defense benefits from his absence—one less explosive weapon for T.J. Watt and company to worry about.
Still, offensive coordinator Todd Monken has built a scheme that maximizes Jackson’s strengths, and the Ravens remain dangerous with their deep stable of playmakers. Running backs Gus Edwards and Justice Hill must help keep the offense balanced, while Jackson’s dual-threat ability will be even more crucial.
X-Factor: Rashod Bateman. The former first-round pick has flashed big-play ability but hasn’t consistently produced as a top option. With Flowers out, this is his chance to prove he can be a true difference-maker.
Few things decide playoff games more than turnovers and penalties.
When these teams last met in Pittsburgh during Week 11, the Ravens unraveled in key moments, committing 12 penalties for 80 yards and turning the ball over three times in an 18-16 loss. However, in Week 16, Baltimore cleaned things up significantly, committing just two penalties for 10 yards and only turning it over once in a convincing victory.
Still, the numbers from the regular season don’t lie—the Ravens finished tied for second in the NFL in total penalties, an alarming stat for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was one of the least-penalized teams in the league and boasted the AFC’s most opportunistic defense, forcing 33 turnovers.
Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin thrives on getting his teams to play clean, disciplined football, and that formula has worked against the Ravens before. Baltimore must ensure it doesn’t become its own worst enemy.
X-Factor: Lamar Jackson’s decision-making. While the Ravens quarterback is the most electrifying player on the field, he must strike the right balance between aggression and ball security. Pittsburgh’s defense feasts on mistakes, and Jackson’s ability to protect the ball could determine the outcome.
The Steelers’ offensive struggles are no secret. They haven’t held a lead in a game since December 8 and failed to score more than 17 points during their four-game losing streak to close the regular season.
The quarterback situation remains fluid, with Tomlin refusing to commit to either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields as the full-time starter. Fields provides a dynamic rushing element, while Wilson is one of the best deep-ball throwers in the league. However, the Steelers’ passing game has been inconsistent, and star wide receiver George Pickens is coming off a disappointing one-catch performance in Week 18, where he also dropped three passes.
On the other side, the Ravens’ defense has been dominant since Week 11, allowing the fewest points per game in the league during that stretch. The pass rush, led by Justin Madubuike and Jadeveon Clowney, has been relentless, and the secondary has tightened up thanks to breakout performances from Kyle Hamilton and Brandon Stephens.
For Pittsburgh to have a chance, they must manufacture explosive plays—something they have struggled with all season. The Ravens’ defense thrives when teams become one-dimensional, so if the Steelers can’t establish a ground game with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, it could be a long afternoon.
X-Factor: George Pickens. If the Steelers are going to move the ball, Pickens must step up as the primary playmaker. He has the talent to create problems for Baltimore’s secondary, but inconsistency has plagued him all season.
The Ravens enter this game as favorites, boasting the league’s likely MVP in Lamar Jackson and a defense that has played at an elite level down the stretch. However, Pittsburgh has a history of frustrating Baltimore, and if the Ravens get sloppy with penalties or turnovers, the Steelers could keep things closer than expected.
Ultimately, the Ravens have more firepower, home-field advantage, and the better quarterback. If they play clean football and find ways to overcome Flowers’ absence, they should be in the driver’s seat for a trip to the AFC Championship.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Steelers 13.