The Baltimore Ravens (7-7), who are four behind the New England Patriots (11-3) in the AFC standings are still 2.5 points ahead of the New England Patriots for their Week 16 meeting on Sunday.

M&T Bank Stadium, in Baltimore, is where Ravens games have been played in the past, particularly during primetime. This has not been true this year. The Ravens have a record of 3-5 at home (with Lamar Jackson healthy), 1-3 during primetime and 0-2 for home primetime games. Home field advantage is still a factor in the odds, but the Ravens are not dominant enough to have a greater impact.

On both sides of football, the Patriots are in the top seven teams for points and yards. They have benefited from a soft schedule but have still won the majority of their games and have a +106-point differential. On one side, they have a second-year quarterback in Drake Maye, and on the other coach Mike Vrabel has built up one of best run-stopping teams in the league.

It was impressive that the Ravens shut out the Bengals during Week 15, but it came against the 4-10 Bengals and their worst defense. Baltimore’s rollercoaster season and struggles with stronger opponents are not changed by the Ravens’ shutout of the Bengals in Week 15. The projection of a tight game this week makes sense, as both teams are fighting to win their respective divisions. The Ravens, however, have not consistently played at a high level that would allow them to beat a team who has a better record, by four matches.

47,5 points (–115/-105)