The stage is set for a cold-weather clash between the Ravens and Bills with a trip to the AFC Championship game on the line. Buffalo boasts an impressive 16-5 postseason record at home, while John Harbaugh leads the NFL in road playoff wins with eight.
As kickoff inches closer, let’s break down where the Bills might be most vulnerable and how Baltimore can exploit those weaknesses to punch their ticket to the next round.
Josh Allen thrives off play-action passing, ranking seventh among qualified quarterbacks with a 91.9 PFF grade. The Bills also rank seventh in EPA per play and fourth in success rate when using play fakes. But here’s the catch: Baltimore has been kryptonite to play-action offenses.
Since Week 10, the Ravens rank second in success rate and EPA per play against play-action, allowing a league-best 5.7 yards per attempt on fake handoffs. During Baltimore’s Week 4 win over Buffalo, Allen managed just 3-of-6 completions for nine yards with zero big-time throws and two turnover-worthy plays off play-action.
If Baltimore can neutralize Buffalo’s bread and butter, the Bills could struggle to sustain drives and control the clock—a formula that could get them run out of their own building.
Buffalo faces a dilemma: do they load the box to stop Derrick Henry or risk letting him dominate on the ground while defending the pass?
Henry has been on a tear, averaging 158.3 rushing yards per game over his last four outings. The Ravens are undefeated (10-0) this season when Henry rushes for at least 100 yards. The Bills typically deploy five defensive backs, but against a powerhouse like Henry, they’ll need to choose between stacking the box and maintaining coverage.
Pick your poison, Buffalo.
Josh Allen is a dual-threat nightmare, holding the record for most postseason rushing yards by a quarterback (609). However, Baltimore’s defense has proven adept at shutting down mobile quarterbacks, surrendering just 239 rushing yards to QBs this season—fifth fewest in the NFL.
Baltimore’s front seven, led by Kyle Van Noy, will aim to pressure Allen while keeping him contained. In their Week 4 matchup, Van Noy had two sacks and three quarterback hits, wreaking havoc on Buffalo’s offense.
Limiting Allen’s impact as a runner is critical to Baltimore’s success.
While the Bills focus on slowing Derrick Henry, they may leave themselves exposed to Lamar Jackson’s game-breaking ability on the ground.
Buffalo has struggled against running quarterbacks this season, allowing 0.45 EPA per designed QB run or scramble—well above the league average. With the Bills’ attention on Henry, Jackson could exploit their defense for a 100-yard rushing performance, further complicating Buffalo’s game plan.
Baltimore’s defensive success will hinge on keeping Josh Allen uncomfortable. Whether it’s stuffing play-action, containing him as a runner, or pressuring him without allowing escapes, the Ravens must execute their game plan flawlessly.
The secondary has also improved since their Week 4 showdown, giving Baltimore an edge against Allen’s aerial attack.
This game is a battle of wills: the Ravens’ balanced attack versus the Bills’ reliance on Allen’s heroics. Buffalo’s vulnerabilities—play-action dependence, light defensive boxes, and struggles against mobile quarterbacks—give Baltimore clear paths to success.
If the Ravens can capitalize on these areas while maintaining their trademark ball security, they’ll have a strong shot at booking a trip to the AFC Championship.
Let’s see who can rise above the cold and the pressure.