The Ravens will play their second Thanksgiving Thursday Night Football matchup of the season. They’ll be facing a division rival, the Cincinnati Bengals. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is set to return from injury in this game. Can the Ravens prevent spoiling the holidays like they did the past two seasons?
This week, there is no room for excuses. I know Lamar Jackson doesn’t seem to be himself and isn’t feeling well. I understand that this is a short-week and planning can be difficult. It’s not important — it can’t be. The Ravens cannot let it happen. Bengals offense will be able to move the ball despite the excellent defense. Tee Higgins’ absence won’t make a difference. Ja’Marr chase has historically been a problem for this team and I would not bet that it will suddenly change. In all likelihood, the Ravens offense will have to chase down points.
The Bengals defense is the worst defense that DVOA has ever measured since 1978. The Bengals’ defense is the absolute worst it has been in 50 years. Sumer Sports reports that they rank last in EPA and success rate. They are also 31st for sack percentage. The Ravens also rank among the bottom five in terms of pressure rate and non-blitzed pressure rate. I don’t expect or ask the Ravens for 40 points even if it’s possible, but they have to be at their best after Jackson’s return.
This game will probably be shortened by the Ravens. Matchups on Thursday nights are not usually favorable to teams that play well or with integrity. It is important to maintain drives and to keep the clock moving. This will help the Bengals offense stay fresher, and the defense can potentially get a few stops.
It’s always a challenge to defend the Bengals, especially when they have the best wide receiver tandem in the NFL with Chase and Higgins. Higgins will not be playing this week for the Bengals after he was placed in the concussion protocols on Sunday due to an injury he received. This should allow you to concentrate on Chase. However, it may not be as simple as it seems. Chase had 11 catches and 17 targets for 264 yards with three touchdowns when the Ravens faced the Bengals without Higgins last year in a Thursday night matchup. He scored two long touchdowns, 67 and 70 yarders. The plan must include double coverages. Good tackling will also be a part of the equation. Chase ran through weak-arm tackles to score long touchdowns on multiple occasions against the Ravens.
Ravens cannot ignore the Bengals’ other weapons, like Mike Gesicki and Noah Fant, or Andrei Iosivas. Chase is known as the killer and must be given top priority. He will get it, but losing another game this year with your offensive struggling is a sure way to lose.
We are in a perfect situation for the offensive lines to gel and progress. Cincinnati will be without Trey Hendrickson. Another Bengal who has become a Raven killer and caused Baltimore problems. The Bengals are unable to create pressure when not blitzing, and they’re even worse when they do. According to Sharp Football, both pressure rates fall below 30%. The Bengals are last in the run stuff rate, and third to last in yards before contact for running back rushes. This means that running backs can easily get past their line of scrimmage. The Ravens aren’t allowing a rusher on the ground to go beyond 70 yards since the bye week. They may have made improvements in this area.
The offensive line must step up in either case. It’s going to be the easiest challenge they face all season. Jackson will be able to help the Bengals offense score more points if they can keep their quarterback in good shape. If they can make life easier by finding holes for Derrick Henry, that will also help. Henry is a large speed back who can move quickly with a single cut. He can’t be treated like a powerback and expect him to ram through defensive lines and leave a dust cloud behind him. Henry will continue to gain five yards if they can get him up to the line.
It’s time for the offensive line to play one of their best games and hopefully start a turnaround in this entire offense.
Since their turnaround, the Ravens’ defensive performance has been outstanding. The Ravens’ defense has been fantastic since their turnaround. It began against the Los Angeles Rams in Alohi Gillman’s debut game, and they have been dominating ever since. Six consecutive games have seen the team allow less than 20 point, including against teams such as the Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins. The team has even improved one of its weakest points by adding more juice to their pass rush through scheme changes and a trade. The run game is currently the weakest aspect of the defense. Stats do not explicitly indicate it. This stretch has seen no running backs with massive games. De’Von Achane has the worst performance with only 67 yards.
They still don’t pass the eye test. Everyone can see you can run on the Ravens. Teams have abandoned the Ravens’ run despite their offense failing to create large leads. Achane had only two more rushes during the second half. Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason combined had 15 carries for the Vikings, despite their respective averages of 5.2 and 6.3% yards per carry. The Browns were 50/50 in pass-run, despite playing two rookie quarterbacks. Quinshon J. Judkins was the main driver of their only offensive touchdown. This defense has seen many teams run 10-plus yards on a regular basis.
Chase Brown is likely to be the Bengals’ first choice, whether it’s Joe Burrow of Joe Flacco. Since the bye, he has had two games with 99 and 107 yards. The Bengals are smart to keep running during a short-week. The Ravens run defense must be better in not allowing longer runs which allow opponents to extend their drives against them. This is the final piece of the puzzle to perfecting this defensive system.