With the Wild Card round in the rearview mirror, the stage is set for the AFC Divisional Round. The matchups feature the Baltimore Ravens traveling to Buffalo to face the Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Houston Texans. Each team comes into the weekend with a chance to move closer to the Super Bowl—but also with glaring weaknesses that could derail their postseason run.
Here’s a breakdown of each AFC team’s biggest vulnerability heading into the weekend.
Despite boasting stars like Marlon Humphrey and rookie standout Nate Wiggins, the Ravens’ secondary has been inconsistent. Blown coverages and lapses in communication have plagued them throughout the season. Case in point: the Wild Card game against the Steelers, where Russell Wilson carved up the defense for 270 yards and two long touchdowns in the third quarter.
With Josh Allen looming, Baltimore must tighten up its coverage to avoid giving up big plays. A win could mean facing Patrick Mahomes or C.J. Stroud, making this issue even more urgent.
The Bills’ defense has taken a hit in the latter half of the season, particularly on third downs. Buffalo allows opponents to convert over 44% of their third-down attempts, one of the worst rates in the league. Injuries to key players like Rasul Douglas, Damar Hamlin, Matt Milano, and Taylor Rapp haven’t helped.
Facing the Ravens’ high-powered offense led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, Buffalo’s third-down woes could prove costly. Add in the fact that they’re ranked 24th in passing yards allowed per game, and the challenge grows even steeper.
The Texans have struggled to maintain consistency on offense, especially after losing Stefon Diggs to a season-ending injury. Since Week 9, Houston ranks 27th in expected points added (EPA) per play. The offensive line has been a significant contributor to this inefficiency, allowing 180 pressures and 33 sacks in 663 pass plays. Their 22nd-ranked PFF pass-blocking efficiency highlights the problem.
C.J. Stroud has been impressive for a rookie, but without better protection and a reliable rhythm, the Texans could find themselves overwhelmed by Kansas City’s defense.
Surprisingly, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense have struggled with the deep ball. Mahomes ranks 28th in QBR on throws traveling 20 or more yards, completing just 11 of 44 attempts for 387 yards, four touchdowns, and four interceptions. His 8.8 yards per attempt on deep throws is near the bottom of the league, and his completion percentage over expected (CPOE) on such throws is dead last.
While Mahomes has no shortage of playmakers—DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce—this deficiency limits Kansas City’s ability to stretch the field. Against a Texans defense that’s playing with house money, this could be a surprising vulnerability.
While the Chiefs remain the top seed and the favorites, each of the remaining AFC teams has flaws that could be exploited. The Ravens look like the most complete team heading into the Divisional Round, with a balanced offense and a defense that has shown flashes of dominance despite its inconsistencies.
Will the Ravens clean up their secondary issues to capitalize on Buffalo’s third-down struggles? Can Houston overcome its offensive inefficiencies to shock Kansas City? Or will Mahomes rediscover his deep ball magic to carry the Chiefs to victory? The answers lie just ahead.
What do you think, Flock fans? Which team’s weakness is most likely to decide the outcome of this weekend’s games? Let us know in the comments!